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- Virtual credits only. Nothing here can be deposited, withdrawn or converted to cash.
- Win probability for a cash-out target m is approximately (1 − edge) / m.
- Expected loss per credit wagered is the same at every target; variance is what changes.
- Auto cash-out removes emotion, but not the house edge.
How the crash simulator works
In a crash game a multiplier starts at 1.00x and climbs until it "crashes" at a random point. You win your bet times the multiplier if you cash out before the crash, and lose the bet otherwise. Our simulator reproduces this with a standard provably-fair-style distribution and a 1% house edge by default. Set a bet size and an auto cash-out target, then run single rounds or batches of 100 and 1,000 to see long-run behaviour.
The chart shows your balance round by round, the crash points that occurred and a histogram of results. Try changing the edge slider to 2% or 4% to see how quickly a bigger edge eats a bankroll.
The math of crash
Crash points are typically generated so that the probability of reaching at least multiplier m is:
P(crash ≥ m) = (1 − h) / m, for m ≥ 1, where h is the house edge
The expected return for a cash-out target m is then P × m = (1 − h), regardless of m. That is the key insight: every target loses the same fraction of the amount wagered on average. At h = 1%, the expected return is 99 cents per dollar wagered.
| Target | Win chance (1% edge) | Average losing streak | Return on CA$10 win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20x | 82.5% | ~1.2 rounds | CA$12 |
| 1.50x | 66.0% | ~1.5 rounds | CA$15 |
| 2.00x | 49.5% | ~2.0 rounds | CA$20 |
| 5.00x | 19.8% | ~5.1 rounds | CA$50 |
| 10.00x | 9.9% | ~10.1 rounds | CA$100 |
| 100.00x | 0.99% | ~101 rounds | CA$1,000 |
A worked example in CA$
You bet CA$10 per round for 500 rounds at 2x. Total wagered is CA$5,000. Expected loss at a 1% edge is CA$50, but the standard deviation is far bigger. Each round is a +CA$10 or −CA$10 swing with roughly equal odds, so the standard deviation of the total is about CA$10 × √500 ≈ CA$224. That means a result anywhere from roughly −CA$270 to +CA$170 would be unremarkable. This is why short sessions can show profit even on a negative-EV game.
Strategies you can test
Low target, high frequency (1.2x to 1.5x)
Wins feel frequent, but a single crash at 1.00x erases many small wins. A CA$10 bet at 1.2x nets CA$2 per win and loses CA$10 on a miss; you need five wins to recover from one loss.
Mid target (2x)
Close to a coin flip. This is the benchmark for comparing other approaches and mirrors the logic in our coinflip simulator.
High target (10x and above)
Long dry spells, rare large wins. Bankroll requirements go up sharply. If you plan on 100 losses in a row being possible, you need 100 units of bankroll.
Martingale on crash
Doubling after losses at 2x looks tempting, but exposure doubles every loss and a 10-loss streak (about 0.1% per start at 49.5%) needs 1,023 base units. Max-bet limits and bankroll caps make it unsafe. See our crash strategy guide for why.
Tip: decide your cash-out target and stop-loss before you press start. Manual cash-outs under pressure tend to be worse than a predefined rule.
How it relates to real sites
Crash is offered by CSGORoll, 500Casino, CSGOFast, Gamdom, Roobet and others. Real sites differ in house edge (generally around 1% to 5%), minimum and maximum bets, and whether the result is provably fair. Many publish a hash of the crash point before the round, which you can verify afterwards using the method in how to verify a roll hash. For a high-level comparison with other games, read crash vs roulette.
If you try crash on a real site, claim any welcome offer carefully and check the wagering conditions. The CSGORoll promo code page lists the current Free Cases and deposit bonus, and our wagering calculator shows the expected cost of meeting turnover requirements.
Bankroll and session rules
- Never bet more than 1% to 2% of your bankroll on a single round.
- Set a fixed loss limit per session, for example CA$50, and stop when it is hit.
- Limit sessions to a set time. Crash's fast pace makes it easy to lose track of wagered volume.
- Use our bankroll calculator to estimate risk of ruin for different bet sizes.
Responsible gambling: real-money crash games can be very fast and habit-forming. If you or someone you know is struggling, contact ConnexOntario (1-866-531-2600), your provincial helpline, or visit our responsible gambling page. Adults only: 19+ in most provinces, 18+ in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance of reaching a given multiplier in crash?
With a house edge h, the chance the round reaches multiplier m is about (1 - h) / m. At a 1% edge, a 2x target wins roughly 49.5% of the time.
Does the simulator use real money?
No. It runs on virtual credits only with no deposits or withdrawals.
Is there a best cash-out multiplier?
No. Expected loss per credit wagered is the same at every target; only variance changes. Lower targets win more often but pay less.
Can I predict the next crash point?
No. Each round is independent, and provably fair seeds are generated before you bet, so previous rounds tell you nothing.
Why do crash games sometimes end at 1.00x?
The house edge is often built in as an instant-crash chance, commonly about 1% of rounds, which is where the edge comes from.
Play responsibly: CS2 gambling is for adults 19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC). Set limits, never chase losses, and use self-exclusion if it stops being fun. Free, confidential help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline — see our responsible gambling page.