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- Ten same-rarity inputs make one item of the next rarity.
- Output float = min + avg_input × (max − min), using the output skin's own range.
- The output skin is random across the collections in your contract, weighted by input counts.
- Always add Steam fees and input cost when judging profit.
How to use the trade-up calculator
- Enter the float of each of your ten input skins (or one float and a quantity).
- Enter the price you paid or could sell each input for, in CA$.
- Pick the possible output skins and enter each one's min and max float and market price.
- Read the output float, the wear tier of each possible result and the expected profit.
The classic formula
CS2 contracts take the average of the ten input floats and map it onto the output skin's range:
output float = min + average_input_float × (max − min)
If the output skin has a range 0.00 to 1.00, output equals the average. If it has a narrower range, the result is compressed. Example: ten inputs average 0.20. Output skin range is 0.00 to 0.50. Output float = 0 + 0.20 × 0.50 = 0.10, which is Minimal Wear. With a range of 0.06 to 0.80, output = 0.06 + 0.20 × 0.74 = 0.208, a Field-Tested. Use the float calculator to check which exterior any result falls in.
Worked example in CA$
Suppose you buy ten Restricted skins at CA$2.20 each (CA$22 total) averaging 0.04 float. Two possible Classified outputs have ranges 0.00–1.00 and 0.00–0.65, each valued as shown:
| Possible output | Range | Output float | Wear | Approx. value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin A | 0.00–1.00 | 0.040 | FN | CA$14 |
| Skin B | 0.00–0.65 | 0.026 | FN | CA$9 |
If the odds are 50/50, expected output value is CA$11.50 against CA$22 of inputs, a loss of CA$10.50 before fees. Market sales would cost a further 15%. This is typical: low-float inputs cost a premium, and the average output rarely beats it. Prices are approx. and move daily.
Understanding odds across collections
If seven of your inputs come from Collection X and three from Collection Y, the output has a 70% chance of coming from X and 30% from Y. Within a collection, each skin of the target rarity has equal chance. Add that up with the number of outputs per collection to get each skin's probability. The calculator multiplies these weights by each output's value to get expected value.
Tips for planning trade-ups
- Chase the float, not the rarity. Profit usually comes from landing low-float outputs on skins where float carries a premium.
- Use the cheapest inputs of the lowest float. Compare input price per 0.01 of float.
- Limit collections. Fewer possible outputs make the result more predictable.
- Include fees. Selling the output on Steam costs 15%; see the Steam fee calculator.
- Test on small contracts first. Variance is high even with a positive-looking plan.
Tip: a trade-up is a gamble if the outputs vary in value. Treat the calculator's expected value as an average, not a promise.
How trade-ups relate to gambling sites
Trade-ups are a Valve mechanic and not offered by gambling sites, but they are often used to create items to deposit on P2P marketplaces or to feed upgraders. A site's coin value for a skin may differ from Steam's, so compare prices before committing. See how to deposit skins and our overview of cheap skins for low-cost inputs.
Not financial advice. Skin prices can fall. If gambling is a concern, see responsible gambling or call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600.
Frequently asked questions
How many items go into a trade-up contract?
Ten items of the same rarity produce one item of the next rarity up.
How is the output float calculated?
Average the ten input floats, then output = min + avg × (max − min), where min and max are the output skin's float range.
Do I choose the output skin?
No. The output is chosen randomly from the collections of your inputs, weighted by how many inputs come from each collection.
Are trade-ups profitable?
Rarely on average. Input cost plus market fees usually exceeds the average output value, so treat results as entertainment, not income.
Can a trade-up produce a knife?
Contracts for the highest tiers follow Valve's current rules, which have changed over time, so check the in-game contract screen before relying on a knife or glove outcome.
Play responsibly: CS2 gambling is for adults 19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC). Set limits, never chase losses, and use self-exclusion if it stops being fun. Free, confidential help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline — see our responsible gambling page.