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- Standard CS2 case odds: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64%, Rare Special Item 0.26%.
- StatTrak applies to about 10% of weapon drops; it does not change the rarity.
- Your chance of at least one knife or glove in 100 openings is only about 23%, and 1,000 openings gives roughly 93%.
- Opening is a negative expected value activity: you pay for the case and key, and the average item is usually worth less.
- Gambling-site cases can have different tables. Always check the odds shown on the specific case.
Case opening looks like pure luck, and it is, but the luck follows a published structure. Understanding the odds will not help you win, but it will help you set realistic expectations and avoid the gambler's fallacy that traps many players. Here are the numbers, the probabilities that follow from them, and how to apply them to a Canadian budget.
The standard CS2 drop table
Rarity in CS2 cases is colour-coded, from blue up to gold. The odds below are the widely cited standard values for a normal weapon case.
| Tier | Colour | Probability | Roughly 1 in | Expected per 1,000 cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | 1.25 | 799 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 6.3 | 160 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 31 | 32 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 156 | 6.4 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | Gold | 0.26% | 385 | 2.6 |
These add up to 100%. The rare tier is deliberately tiny, and it is what makes cases feel exciting. If you want to see this in action without spending anything, use our case opening simulator.
StatTrak and wear
StatTrak is a separate roll. About 10% of eligible drops come as StatTrak, so if you get a Covert, there is a roughly 1 in 10 chance it is StatTrak. Wear (float) is rolled independently within each skin's range, from Factory New to Battle-Scarred, and many skins have limited ranges. Factory New is the narrowest band for most skins, so the odds of a very clean item are lower than most players assume. Read more in our guide to float and wear and the float calculator.
Cumulative odds: how likely is it over many cases?
The probability of at least one hit in n openings is 1 − (1 − p)n. Because each opening is independent, the chance on case number 386 is still 0.26%, no matter what happened before. The table below is calculated with that formula.
| Cases opened | At least one Classified | At least one Covert | At least one Rare Special |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 27.8% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| 50 | 80.3% | 27.5% | 12.2% |
| 100 | 96.1% | 47.4% | 22.9% |
| 385 | 99.9%+ | 91.6% | 63.3% |
| 500 | 99.9%+ | 96.0% | 72.8% |
| 1,000 | 99.9%+ | 99.8% | 92.6% |
Reading the table: Even after 385 cases, the average number needed for one rare item, you have only a 63% chance of having hit one. About 37% of players will have none. That is not bad luck, it is how the maths works.
Expected value: what is a case really worth?
Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted average of the item prices. A case with a 0.26% chance at a CA$800 knife contributes about CA$2.08 to EV from that tier alone (0.0026 × 800). A Covert worth CA$60 contributes about CA$0.38. The tiers below Classified usually contribute pennies. Add them together, compare with the cost of the case plus key (a key has historically been around US$2.50, and case prices vary), and you generally find that average EV is below the cost.
That gap is the "house edge" of case opening. It is not fixed, and it moves with skin prices and case popularity, which change daily. Treat any EV figure as approximate. To see how prices influence the numbers, check our posts on rarest case drops and cases overview.
Illustrative example
Suppose a case plus key costs CA$5 on a gambling site, with these simplified values: Mil-Spec CA$0.20, Restricted CA$0.80, Classified CA$4, Covert CA$25 and a Rare Special CA$500. EV = 0.7992×0.20 + 0.1598×0.80 + 0.032×4 + 0.0064×25 + 0.0026×500 = 0.16 + 0.128 + 0.128 + 0.16 + 1.30 = CA$1.876. Cost CA$5 means about CA$3.12 expected loss per opening, or 62%. The numbers are made up for illustration; real cases vary a lot, and many site cases are designed so that EV is closer to 90% to 97% of the price.
Valve cases versus gambling-site cases
Valve's cases follow the official drop table above. Skin gambling sites also offer custom cases built from skins the operator has chosen, with their own odds, price tiers and sometimes multi-tier "levels". These can be advertised with a return-to-player (RTP) such as 95% or 96%, meaning the expected return is that percentage of the price. Always read the case page and the fairness section, which shows how the roll is calculated. For verification see Provably Fair Explained.
Many sites also offer case battles, where players open the same cases and the highest total value wins. Odds per case do not change, but the competitive format adds a fee and changes how risk is shared.
Combining the rolls: what is the chance of a StatTrak knife?
Because the rarity roll and the StatTrak roll are separate, you multiply them. A StatTrak Covert has a probability of 0.64% × 10% = 0.064%, about 1 in 1,560 openings. For gold items the exact treatment of StatTrak varies by knife and glove type (gloves do not carry StatTrak), so check the item list for the case. As a rule, treat very specific outcomes, such as a particular knife finish in a particular wear with StatTrak, as lottery-ticket odds. A single named knife in a case with, say, 20 possible gold items has roughly a 0.013% chance per opening before wear is even considered.
Wear then splits the outcome again. Many skins have full 0.00 to 1.00 float ranges where Factory New covers only 0.00 to 0.07, which is just 7% of the range. That is why pristine versions of popular finishes command such premiums, and why a "knife" outcome can still be worth wildly different amounts. A Rare Special hit is therefore not a guaranteed profit; check the pricing table for the cheapest versions of the knives that case can drop.
Common misconceptions
- "I'm due a knife." No pity timer exists. Past failures do not raise your next chance.
- "Opening many at once changes the odds." It does not; it only speeds up your spending.
- "Cheap cases have better odds." The tier odds are the same; the difference is the value of items inside each tier.
- "Time of day matters." Provably fair or server-side random generation is not affected by the clock.
- "Trade-ups are better." Trade-up contracts have their own maths. Test it with the trade-up calculator first.
A sensible budget for case opening
- Set a CA$ limit before you start, such as CA$20 for a session.
- Divide it into small units. With CA$20 and cases at CA$2, that is 10 openings.
- Know your realistic outcomes. Over 10 cases your chance of a Rare Special is about 2.6%, so plan to enjoy the lower tiers.
- Stop when the budget ends. Do not chase with a second deposit.
- Use free cases first. Promo-code free cases cost nothing; browse the promo codes, including the CSGOEmpire code case2go for a Free Case worth up to 2,050 coins.
Reminder: Case opening is gambling. The average player loses money over time. Only play with money you can afford to lose, and if it stops being fun, contact ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline. You must be 19+ (18+ in Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec).
Summary
The official odds are fixed: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.2% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% Rare Special Item, with about 10% of weapon drops StatTrak. Cumulative maths shows how long the tail is. For the wider context of how the games compare, read How CS2 Gambling Works. This content is informational and does not guarantee outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of a knife or glove from a CS2 case?
The Rare Special Item tier, which covers knives and gloves, drops at 0.26%, roughly 1 in 385 openings. That is per case and independent of previous results.
What are the other CS2 case drop rates?
Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.2%, Covert 0.64% and Rare Special Item 0.26%. They add up to 100%.
What are the odds of a StatTrak drop?
Any weapon drop has about a 10% chance of being StatTrak. This applies on top of the rarity roll.
Are cases on gambling sites the same as Valve cases?
Not necessarily. Site-made cases and case battles use their own item tables and prices, so check the odds displayed on the site and its fairness page.
Do I get a guaranteed knife after many cases?
No. Each opening is independent, so there is no pity timer. After 385 cases your chance of at least one rare item is about 63%, not 100%.
Play responsibly: CS2 gambling is for adults 19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC). Set limits, never chase losses, and use self-exclusion if it stops being fun. Free, confidential help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline — see our responsible gambling page.