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- Expected loss = total wagered × house edge.
- Typical swing (even-money bets) ≈ bet size × √(number of bets).
- Keep single bets to about 1% of bankroll or less so variance does not end a session early.
- No staking plan makes a negative-edge game profitable.
How to use the bankroll calculator
- Enter your bankroll in CA$ (money you can afford to lose).
- Enter your bet size and number of bets planned.
- Choose a game or enter win probability, payout and house edge.
- Read the expected result, standard deviation, and the probability of losing 25%, 50% or 100% of the bankroll.
The math in plain terms
- Units: bankroll ÷ bet size. CA$500 bankroll with CA$5 bets is 100 units.
- Expected loss: N × bet × edge. Example: 300 bets of CA$5 at 1% edge is CA$15.
- Standard deviation: for roughly even-money bets, bet × √N. 300 bets of CA$5: 5 × 17.3 ≈ CA$86.6.
- Z-score of ruin: bankroll loss ÷ standard deviation. Losing CA$500 in that session is about 5.8 SD away, which is practically impossible; losing CA$100 is about 1.2 SD, which is commonplace.
The longer you play, the more the expected loss (which grows with N) dominates the swings (which grow with √N). Short sessions are noisy; long sessions converge on the edge.
Example scenarios in CA$
| Game | Bankroll | Bet | Bets | Edge | Expected loss | Typical swing (1 SD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crash 2x | CA$500 | CA$5 | 300 | 1% | CA$15 | ±CA$87 |
| Roulette red | CA$500 | CA$5 | 300 | 6.67% | CA$100 | ±CA$87 |
| Roulette red | CA$500 | CA$25 | 300 | 6.67% | CA$500 | ±CA$433 |
| Coinflip (5% fee) | CA$200 | CA$10 | 100 | 5% | CA$50 | ±CA$100 |
The third row shows why bet size matters: a 5% bet on a 6.67% edge game puts the expected loss equal to the entire bankroll.
Bet-sizing rules of thumb
- Flat 1%. Bet at most 1% of the bankroll. At CA$500 that is CA$5.
- Stop-loss. Decide a loss limit per session, such as 20% of bankroll, and stop when hit.
- Stop-win. Optional, but locking in a session profit prevents giving it back automatically.
- Avoid progression systems. Martingale requires doubling bets; seven losses at CA$5 means a CA$320 bet. See roulette strategy and crash strategy.
What about Kelly?
The Kelly criterion maximises long-run growth when you have a positive edge. Casino-style games on skin sites have negative edges, so the Kelly stake is zero. Kelly applies only if you have a genuine advantage, which is rare and not the case for house-banked games. Our blog post on bankroll management for skin gambling explains the practical side.
Bankroll on skin sites
On skin sites, your bankroll may be in coins or skins whose value moves independently of the game. A CA$200 knife can fall to CA$170 while you play. Decide a bankroll in CA$, not in coins, and use the coins to CA$ converter to check it. Deposit and withdrawal costs (including the 15% Steam fee) reduce effective bankroll; see the Steam fee calculator. If you want to practise sizing before using real funds, run sessions in our crash simulator.
Checklist before you start
- Is this money I can afford to lose entirely?
- Have I set bet size, session length and a loss limit?
- Am I playing while tired, upset or intoxicated? If so, stop.
Responsible gambling: if you are borrowing, hiding losses or chasing, call ConnexOntario at 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline, and see responsible gambling. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of my bankroll should I bet?
A common guideline for recreational play is 1% or less per bet, which gives around 100 units of cushion.
Does bankroll management beat the house edge?
No. It controls how fast you lose and how long you can play, but cannot make a negative-EV game profitable.
What is the Kelly criterion?
Kelly sizes bets by edge. For games with a negative edge, the recommended Kelly bet is zero.
What is a drawdown?
A drawdown is the fall from a peak balance to a later low, shown in percent or CA$.
Should my bankroll be money I need?
No. Only use money you can afford to lose and that is not earmarked for rent, bills or savings.
Play responsibly: CS2 gambling is for adults 19+ (18+ in AB, MB, QC). Set limits, never chase losses, and use self-exclusion if it stops being fun. Free, confidential help: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 or your provincial helpline — see our responsible gambling page.